Who Will Win Best Picture At This Year's Oscars?

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     This Sunday March 2, the 97th Academy Awards will air on ABC. This article will look at the other major film awards for this year leading up to the Oscars in order to get a good estimate on which film will take home the Academy Award for Best Picture.


Who are this year's Academy Award nominees for Best Picture?

For the sixteenth consecutive year, there are ten nominees for Best Picture. The nominees, in alphabetical order are Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Perez, I'm Still Here, Nickel Boys, The Substance and Wicked.


How have the nominees fared at other award shows this year?

Leading up to the Oscars, there have been eight major award shows that, either in part or in whole, honored films released in 2024. Those award shows, in order of when they aired, were the 82nd Golden Globe Awards on January 5th; the 30th Critics' Choice Awards on February 7th; the 78th BAFTA Awards on February 16th; and the Producers, Directors, Screen Actors, and Writers Guild Awards from February 8th to 23rd.  The films that won Best Picture for those awards included The Brutalist (Best Picture-Drama at the Golden Globes), Emilia Perez (Best Picture-Musical or Comedy at the Golden Globes), Anora (Best Picture at the Critics' Choice Awards, Producers Guild Awards and Directors Guild of America awards) and Conclave (Best Film at the BAFTA Awards). Anora is the only film to be named Best Picture by at least two different award shows.


How have previous Best Picture winners fared at these others award shows?

Listed below are the previous winners of the pre-Oscar award shows that have gone one to win Best Picture at the Academy Awards.

Golden Globe Award for Best Motion Picture-Drama

1944-Going My Way

1945-The Lost Weekend

1946-The Best Years Of Our Lives

1947-Gentleman's Agreement

1949-All The King's Men

1952-The Greatest Show On Earth

1954-On The Waterfront

1956-Around The World In 80 Days

1957-The Bridge On The River Kwai

1959-Ben-Hur

1962-Lawrence Of Arabia

1966-A Man For All Seasons

1967-In The Heat Of The Night

1971-The French Connection

1972-The Godfather

1975-One Flew Over The Cuckoo's Nest

1976-Rocky

1979-Kramer vs. Kramer

1980-Ordinary People

1983-Terms Of Endearment

1984-Amadeus

1985-Out Of Africa

1986-Platoon

1987-The Last Emperor

1988-Rain Man

1990-Dances With Wolves

1993-Schindler's List

1994-Forrest Gump

1996-The English Patient

1997-Titanic

1999-American Beauty

2000-Gladiator

2001-A Beautiful Mind 

2003-The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

2008-Slumdog Millionaire

2012-Argo

2013-12 Years A Slave

2016-Moonlight

2020-Nomadland

2023-Oppenheimer

Percentage of winners that went on to win Best Picture at the Academy Awards (rounding to the nearest whole number)-49 % (40/81)


Golden Globe Award for Best Motion Picture-Musical or Comedy

1951-An American In Paris

1960-The Apartment

1963-Tom Jones

1964-My Fair Lady

1965-The Sound Of Music

1968-Oliver!

1989-Driving Miss Daisy

1998-Shakespeare In Love

2002-Chicago

2011-The Artist

2018-Green Book

Percentage of winners that went on to win Best Picture at the Academy Awards-15 % (11/73) 


Critics' Choice Movie Award for Best Picture

1999-American Beauty

2000-Gladiator

2001-A Beautiful Mind

2002-Chicago

2003-The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

2006-The Departed

2007-No Country For Old Men

2008-Slumdog Millionaire

2009-The Hurt Locker

2011-The Artist

2012-Argo

2013-12 Years A Slave

2015-Spotlight

2017-The Shape Of Water

2020-Nomadland

2022-Everything Everywhere All At Once

2023-Oppenheimer

Percentage of winners that went on to win Best Picture at the Academy Awards-59 % (17/29)


BAFTA Award for Best Film

Author's Note: Only movies whose BAFTA Award for Best Film came during the same year as their Academy Award for Best Picture are listed.

1948-Hamlet

1950-All About Eve

1957-The Bridge On The River Kwai

1959-Ben-Hur

1960-The Apartment

1962-Lawrence Of Arabia

1963-Tom Jones

1969-Midnight Cowboy

1977-Annie Hall

1981-Chariots Of Fire

1982-Gandhi

1993-Schindler's List

1996-The English Patient

1998-Shakespeare In Love

1999-American Beauty

2000-Gladiator

2003-The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

2008-Slumdog Millionaire

2009-The Hurt Locker

2010-The King's Speech

2011-The Artist

2012-Argo

2013-12 Years A Slave

2020-Nomadland

2023-Oppenheimer

Percentage of winners that went on to win the Academy Award for Best Picture-32 % (25/77) (Author's Note: This total does not include wins by The Best Years Of Our Lives (1947), My Fair Lady (1965), A Man For All Seasons (1967), One Flew Over The Cuckoo's Nest (1976) and The Last Emperor (1988) due to those films' wins in this category occurring AFTER they had already won the Academy Award for Best Picture.


Producers Guild of America Award for Best Theatrical Motion Picture

1989-Driving Miss Daisy

1990-Dances With Wolves

1991-The Silence Of The Lambs

1993-Schlindler's List

1994-Forrest Gump

1996-The English Patient

1997-Titanic

1999-American Beauty

2000-Gladiator

2002-Chicago

2003-The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

2007-No Country For Old Men

2008-Slumdog Millionaire

2009-The Hurt Locker

2010-The King's Speech

2011-The Artist

2012-Argo

2013-12 Years A Slave (Author's Note-Tied with Gravity)

2014-Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue Of Ignorance)

2017-The Shape of Water

2018-Green Book

2020-Nomadland

2021-CODA

2022-Everything Everywhere All At Once

2023-Oppenheimer

Percentage of winners that went on to win Best Picture at the Academy Awards-71 % (25/35)


Based on the percent of winners of each of the above awards that have gone on to win the Academy Award for Best Picture, the Producers Guild of America Awards would seem to be the best indicator of which movie will win Best Picture, with a 71 % success rate, while the Golden Globe Award for Best Musical or Comedy would seem to be the worst indicator, with only a 15 % success rate. Unlike last year, when Oppenheimer swept all of the major film awards, no film has managed to win more than two of the Best Picture  awards, with Anora being named Best Picture by the Critics' Choice Awards and the Producers Guild of America Awards. At least one of the pre-Oscar Best Picture winners has gone on to win the Academy Award for Best Picture in each of the last four years. If that trend continues, than the Academy Award for Best Picture will most likely go to Anora.  If not, the most likely winner is Emilia Perez due to the film having the most Academy Award nominations with 13.


My Final Pick

Anora


Update

Called it

https://www.indiewire.com/awards/results/anora-wins-best-picture-oscar-1235099698/



Sources

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golden_Globe_Award_for_Best_Motion_Picture_%E2%80%93_Drama

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golden_Globe_Award_for_Best_Motion_Picture_%E2%80%93_Musical_or_Comedy

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Critics%27_Choice_Movie_Award_for_Best_Picture

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BAFTA_Award_for_Best_Film

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Producers_Guild_of_America_Award_for_Best_Theatrical_Motion_Picture


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